Bungie recently got their knickers in a twist, insisting that much publicized $500m figure for their new IP, Destiny, wasn’t even close to accurate. Activision handle the marketing side though…
But even if Destiny did turn out to be the most expensive game ever produced, it could still end up turning a tidy profit for publishing leviathan, Activision. And by tidy, I’m using the colloquial definition i.e. COLOSSAL!
Meet Cowen’s Ordometer.
It’s a formula that compares pre-orders to their post launch sales. Obviously it’s not an exacting science but it has six full years of NPD physical sales and Amazon bestseller data to correlate with. So as guesstimates go, it’s pretty well informed. And a research analyst at Cowen, Doug Creutz, speaking to VentureBeat intimated that Destiny could end up selling 10-15 million copies.
This doesn’t seem like a staggering figure, I’ll grant you, until you take into the consideration copies cost $60 on average. (Shocking, I know! Right?!!!)
And so $60 x 15m = $900m
Even at the more conservative $55 price point, allowing for sales or competitive pricing, 55 dollars times one hundred and fifty millions will still net Activision a cool $825m!
According to Cowen’s Ordometer, Destiny will have profit coming out the wazoo - I’m not even sure where the wazoo is located but you can rest assured Destiny’s will be drippin’ monies!
Of course, the Ordometer only takes pre-orders into account, specifically the time period of E3 to year’s end. It can’t calculate for cancelled pre-orders (of which one wouldn’t suspect all that many) and off-the-cuff, on-the-day sales. So the profit margin could be higher still.
Whether or not Destiny deserves to make this much money is quite another thing entirely. Yes everyone is well and truly pumped for the mid-July beta. And anyone lucky enough to get their hands on June’s alpha code raved about Bungie’s latest. But judging from analysis, previews and gameplay videos, Destiny for all its ambitious and stunning good looks, has yet to cough up anything truly next gen. Besides Peter Dinklage’s voice acting. Obviously…
Roll on September 9th.